Story Highlights
- Only 33 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, the lowest figure since Marist began tracking the question in 2019
- 22 percent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s economic performance, a significant defection within his own base
- Trump is now 10 points underwater with rural Americans, a group where he held a 22-point net positive rating in February 2025
What Happened
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds a record low share of Americans approve of President Trump’s job performance and his handling of the economy heading into the summer before a key midterm election. Only a third of Americans say they approve of how Trump is handling the economy — three points lower than the worst marks given to former President Joe Biden during his term.
The survey, conducted from June 8 to 11, 2026, polled 1,340 U.S. adults by phone, text, and online with a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points. The 33 percent approval rating marks the lowest since Marist began asking the question in 2019. Sixty percent of Americans overall disapprove of Trump’s economic approach.
The erosion in Trump’s support cuts across multiple demographic groups that were key to his 2024 victory. Among independent voters, 64 percent continue to disapprove or strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, along with 94 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Republicans. Approval among Gen Z stands at 25 percent, Gen X at 36 percent, and those with household incomes below $50,000 per year at 34 percent. In February 2025, Trump had a net positive approval rating of 22 points among rural Americans, but he is now 10 points underwater. By roughly a two-to-one margin, Latinos disapprove of his performance.
Among Republicans, the share who say they strongly approve of Trump’s job performance dropped to 53 percent in June from 61 percent in April. Notably, 22 percent of Republicans say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, a significant number within his own party.
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said Americans are connecting affordability challenges — including high gas prices and rising food costs — directly with Trump’s presidency. “He can’t get away with high prices at the pump and at the supermarket and not get tarnished by that,” Miringoff said.
Why It Matters
Approval ratings in the summer preceding a midterm election are among the most predictive indicators of a president’s party’s congressional performance. When a sitting president falls below 50 percent approval — particularly on the economy — the opposition party typically gains seats. Trump’s numbers are now well below that threshold, and the breadth of the decline, cutting across income levels, age groups, geography, and even portions of the Republican base, makes a simple political reversal difficult to engineer quickly.
The economic disapproval is not abstract. Gas prices are down roughly 50 cents per gallon from last month following a steady rise since March, but they remain approximately 79 cents higher than a year ago. Much of the country still sees prices above $4 per gallon, and Americans’ views on gas are being reinforced by traditional and social media.
The data on rural Americans is particularly striking for a president who built his political identity on rural grievance and energy. The 32-point swing in net approval among rural voters since early 2025 reflects real economic pain in communities that are highly exposed to fuel costs, agricultural input prices, and the broader supply chain disruptions that accompanied the Iran conflict.
The Republican base’s softening, while not yet a full break, creates compounding problems. When base voters lose enthusiasm, they are less likely to donate, volunteer, canvass, and ultimately turn out. In midterm elections where turnout is structurally lower than in presidential cycles, even modest enthusiasm gaps carry outsized consequences.
Economic and Global Context
Economic anxieties were part of what fueled Trump’s return to office in 2024. Seventy-seven percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024 still approve of how he is handling economic matters. But 54 percent of white voters without a college degree — a foundational Trump constituency — disapprove, suggesting the economic dissatisfaction has penetrated deeply into his traditional support structure.
The Silver Bulletin polling average shows Trump’s net approval rating on the economy dropped below -30 for the first time in his second term in late May. His net approval on inflation is even more severe, with recent polls showing just 20 to 30 percent of Americans approving of his handling of price levels.
The Iran war is a direct cause of much of this economic pain. Months of restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz drove crude oil prices sharply higher, translating into elevated gasoline costs that hit consumers at every income level. While the newly signed memorandum of understanding offers hope for easing those pressures, the 60-day interim nature of the deal and lingering uncertainty about full compliance mean relief may be slow to materialize.
For the first time since 2010, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy, according to polling conducted earlier this spring. Democrats have a distinct advantage on the congressional generic ballot and lead in voter enthusiasm, two factors that typically predict midterm performance with reasonable accuracy.
Implications
For the White House, the immediate political response to this data will likely involve highlighting the Iran deal as an economic inflection point — the moment when gas prices began their return to normal. That narrative requires the agreement to hold, Hormuz to remain open, and consumers to feel relief before November. Each of those conditions is uncertain.
For Republican congressional candidates, the polling data intensifies a difficult positioning challenge. Candidates in competitive districts must decide how closely to align with a president whose economic approval has fallen below Biden’s historical lows — a damaging comparison given that economic dissatisfaction with Biden was a primary Republican campaign argument in both 2022 and 2024.
Democrats have a serious chance of flipping Republican-held Senate seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, while Iowa and Texas are no longer considered safe Republican bets. The structural reality, however, is that the reduced number of competitive House districts limits Democratic gains even in a wave environment.
For American voters, the polling data reflects real and lived experience — not a partisan narrative. The combination of elevated food prices, fuel costs, and uncertainty about the economic trajectory of the Iran deal’s aftermath has translated into genuine dissatisfaction that crosses party lines. How the administration responds to that dissatisfaction over the next five months will determine whether November represents a course correction or an endorsement.
Sources
“Poll: Most Americans have the summer blues about Trump and the economy”
