Story Highlights
- A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds just 37 percent of respondents approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59 percent disapprove
- Democrats lead Republicans by 10 points on the generic congressional ballot — a gap analysts say could produce a wave election
- Disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy, Iran, immigration, and health care has all increased significantly since April 2025
What Happened
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds just 37 percent of respondents approve of the job Trump is doing overall, while 59 percent disapprove. Democrats lead by 10 points on the congressional ballot test. Democrats also have the edge on enthusiasm to vote, which is critical in midterm years when turnout is expected to be lower than in presidential election years.
The April 2026 Emerson College Polling national survey of likely voters similarly found Democrats with a 10-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, leading Republicans 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Trump holds a 40 percent job approval rating and 56 percent disapproval among likely voters — a two-point decrease in approval and a five-point increase in disapproval since March.
Democrats’ strength is driven by an increase in support among Hispanic voters, women, and independents, according to Emerson director Spencer Kimball. Hispanics break for Democrats by a 35-point margin, women by 21 points, and independents by 19 points. These are precisely the demographic groups that delivered Trump his 2024 victory, suggesting meaningful erosion in his coalition.
Trump’s job approval, which stood above 50 percent when he took office for his second term, has fallen to around 40 percent while public disapproval has risen by 13 points — from 44 percent to 57 percent. Approval for his handling of inflation stands at just 30 percent; the overall economy, 37 percent; and health care, 29 percent.
More than 8 in 10 Americans said pain at the pump is putting a strain on their household budgets, and a strong majority blames President Trump for the high gas prices, according to the NPR/PBS/Marist poll. The survey was conducted April 27–30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Why It Matters
A 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot is historically associated with significant seat gains for the leading party. The 2018 midterms, which produced a 41-seat Democratic wave in the House, were driven by an approximately 9.7-point Democratic generic ballot advantage. The current numbers, if sustained, suggest a comparable level of voter discontent with the party in power.
Democrats are 8 points more likely than Republicans to say they’re “very enthusiastic” to vote — 61 percent to 53 percent. There’s also a 14-point enthusiasm gap between people who voted for Democrat Kamala Harris and those who voted for Trump in 2024. In midterm elections, enthusiasm and turnout gaps frequently determine outcomes, particularly in competitive districts.
The polling data reflects a confluence of policy failures, economic pain, and foreign policy frustration that have compounded over the first 15 months of Trump’s second term. For the first time since 2010, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy, a remarkable shift that underscores how dramatically the political terrain has moved since Election Day 2024. Economic management was one of Trump’s strongest political assets; its erosion in public perception is potentially his most dangerous liability heading into November.
The collapse of Trump’s standing among independents is particularly significant. Independent voters’ disapproval of the administration’s handling of immigration increased 17 points from last year, disapproval of the economy increased by 13 points, and disapproval of foreign policy increased 15 points. Independents decide elections in competitive districts, and a 19-point generic ballot disadvantage among this group is alarming for Republican incumbents.
Economic and Global Context
Gas prices are the most visceral economic indicator driving voter discontent. More than 8 in 10 Americans said high gas prices are straining their household budgets, and the surge at the pump has been directly tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption caused by the Iran conflict. Prices above $4.46 per gallon have not been seen in nearly four years, and analysts warn of a potential breach of $5 per gallon if the blockade persists.
A majority of voters — 53 percent — view U.S. military action in Iran as more of a failure, while 35 percent view it as more of a success. Republican voters view the military action as a success at 66 percent, while 57 percent of independents view it as a failure. That partisan divide illustrates how the conflict plays differently within the GOP base versus the broader electorate that will determine control of Congress.
On the Polymarket prediction platform, traders have priced a Democratic blue wave — defined as Democrats securing 218 or more House seats and 49 or more Senate seats — at an 86 percent implied probability as of early May, driven by Democratic overperformance in recent special elections across Georgia, Wisconsin, and southern states. While prediction markets are not polls, they aggregate broad information and reflect sophisticated assessments of electoral probability.
The structural arithmetic of the 2026 cycle favors Democrats in one key respect: of the 69 seats won by less than 10 points in 2024, Democrats hold 46 and Republicans hold just 23. Republicans won 90 percent of their seats in 2024 by 10 points or more, compared to just 79 percent of Democrats, meaning Democrats have more natural targets for offense while Republicans have fewer cushioned incumbents to rely on.
Implications
The polling data presents the Republican Party with a narrowing window to course-correct before November. Democrats have a serious chance of flipping Republican-held Senate seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, while Iowa and Texas are no longer regarded as sure bets for Republicans. A loss of even modest seats in both chambers would effectively end Trump’s legislative agenda for the remainder of his second term.
For Trump personally, the trajectory of the numbers reflects an ongoing challenge: the policies he has pursued most aggressively — tariffs, the Iran conflict, Medicaid cuts — are generating the most significant voter backlash. His strongest political asset, his bond with his base, remains intact in primary elections, as Indiana demonstrated this week, but base loyalty alone cannot hold the House.
Republican strategists are divided on how to respond. Calling for greater distance from Trump risks triggering the kind of primary retribution that Indiana demonstrated is very real. But continuing to attach themselves to an increasingly unpopular president in competitive districts carries its own electoral danger. That dilemma — the central paradox of the Republican Party in 2026 — has no easy resolution.
For American voters, the midterms are shaping up to be a genuine referendum on the direction of the country under Trump’s second term. The question is whether the dissatisfaction captured by current polling translates into sustained voter engagement through November — or whether, as has happened before, enthusiasm peaks early and fades before Election Day.
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